Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
